While the era of the grand coalition in Germany is slowly coming to an end, Israel has formed the largest coalition in its history. Whether this coalition will even come close to matching the lifespan of its smaller German counterpart, however, is highly doubtful.
Eight parties, ranging from far-left and post-Zionist to far-right and Zionist, along with the Islamist Ra'am party, form a governing coalition. Led by alternating prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, their main point of agreement was the removal of Benjamin Netanyahu. But once that was achieved, the relentless stream of serious decisions and issues began, forcing the new government to grapple with them. With only a one-vote majority in parliament and such diverse positions among the coalition partners, a political rollercoaster ride has begun, the script of which even a thriller writer could hardly have crafted better. Except this isn't a fantasy novel; this is the reality of governing the only Jewish state amidst a sea of enemies and uncertainties.
After just 40 days, it's becoming clear that the government is barely capable of securing parliamentary majorities. But that's precisely what it needs, because the Knesset has become a battleground where the opposition, led by former long-serving Prime Minister Netanyahu, is tightly united and determined to do anything. They have one primary goal: to topple the new government as quickly as possible. And: it's already teetering. We examine the new government's biggest foreign and domestic policy challenges and take stock after 40 days.
Foreign policy – Isaac lies on the altar
In his inaugural address at the Foreign Ministry, the new Foreign Minister, Yair Lapid, made it clear that his three primary goals are to rebuild relations with the US Democrats, the progressive Jewish establishment in America, and the European Union. This, however, is only possible if he sacrifices the breakthroughs achieved in recent years on this altar, breakthroughs that are a thorn in the side of all three groups. This applies particularly to the Abraham Accords, which run counter to the Western credo of a two-state solution. While this contradicts Israel's interests, it does not contradict Lapid's.
Lapid didn't hesitate for a moment to implement his plan and began to resurrect the necessary primal dogma: the myth of the supposed centrality of the Palestinian question to the Middle East. This very myth had been burst like a soap bubble by US President Donald Trump with his successful Middle East policy. Trump demonstrated that the Palestinians are not the essential partners without whom peace in the region is impossible. Rather, he showed that the opposite is true. Peace is impossible with the current Palestinian leadership. But without them, there are plenty of Arab and Muslim partners around with whom a new, peaceful Middle East can be built. Had Trump's foreign policy continued, Indonesia and then probably Saudi Arabia would have been the next to join the Abraham Accords. Instead, at the embassy opening in Abu Dhabi, Lapid set fire to their very foundations.
At the official ceremony, he publicly endorsed the Abraham Accords, even praising their authors, Netanyahu and Trump. However, in a subsequent interview with Israeli media, he stated that the agreement served only to circumvent the real issue: the Palestinians.
The Europeans and US Democrats are working according to the same recipe: publicly praising the agreement while working behind the scenes to bleed it dry. The US government has meanwhile undermined the agreement's financial foundation, cutting all investment in the Abraham Fund until further notice. This fund was intended to promote and finance trade, research, and cooperation within the framework of the agreement.
Domestic politics – Technical knockout in the first round?
Domestically, the government's initial steps also hint at its priorities, particularly regarding the relationship between the state and synagogues. This is hardly surprising, given that for decades this area was solely in the hands of Netanyahu's allies, Shas and United Torah Judaism, resulting in monopolistic structures and stagnant reforms. Yair Lapid and Avigdor Liberman have been advocating for years to limit the privileges of the Haredim, as the ultra-Orthodox are known in Israel. These Haredim had already been granted exemptions from military service by the country's founder, David Ben-Gurion, to study Torah. However, at that time they constituted a tiny minority.
With a birth rate of more than seven children, they now constitute nearly 15 percent of the total population and are by far the fastest-growing demographic group in Israel. They are the guarantee that the demographic race against the Arabs will not be lost and also contribute a great deal of intellectual and spiritual innovation. The Haredi parties, which have allied themselves with Netanyahu in every legislative term of his term and are currently in opposition with him, are essentially working to preserve this privilege of exemption from military service, as well as to secure the highest possible social benefits for large families and state support for religious institutions. This is much to the dismay of the working population in Israel, whose taxes finance all of this and whose sons must perform three years and whose daughters two years of mandatory military service.
Barely in office, the new Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman has already decided on restrictions, excluding full-time male students who are not employed from receiving social benefits, with the aim of better integrating the Haredim into the labor market. The eliminated social benefits formed the basis of livelihood for approximately 43,000 ultra-Orthodox families.
Furthermore, the previous government failed to meet a Supreme Court-imposed deadline for revising the exemptions from military service for Haredim. This would normally mean that Haredi men are now obligated to perform military service. However, due to the subsequent dissolution of the Knesset, the deadline has been postponed and now awaits the new government as a welcome gift, as it must now find a way to address this highly controversial issue.
This is far from the only problem awaiting resolution. Israel's government faces a long list of pressing decisions regarding the state's relationship with religion: from the election process for judges in rabbinical courts and transportation on Shabbat to civil marriage, which is currently unavailable to Jews in Israel, prayer at the Western Wall for non-Orthodox Jews, and education for ultra-Orthodox Jews. For decades, some of these issues have been a source of deep tension within Israeli society. Being both a Jewish and a democratic state is no easy feat. The government's already slim majorities would likely collapse under the anticipated massive pressure from religious quarters. Fundamental changes are hardly to be expected.
Lost Knesset vote reveals dilemma
The vote concerned a standard decree that, since the 1990s, has been automatically passed annually by parliament under governments of all political persuasions. This decree prevents the naturalization of non-Israelis through marriage, especially those from hostile states. If Arab Israelis marry non-Israelis, such as Palestinians from the West Bank, their naturalization and family reunification would entail two risks that proved deadly more than once during the Intifada: Firstly, the measure alters the Arab-Jewish population balance in the Jewish state in favor of the Arabs; secondly, it poses an increased security risk.
The deadline for extending the decree this year expired on July 7th. Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked wanted to push it through in its existing form, without compromise. But there was no majority for it within her own coalition; the far-left Meretz party and the Arab Ra'am party refused their support. Likud had always supported this important decree in the past, but now let the new government down. Even the compromise solution of an additional naturalization quota was rejected: A defection from the Yamina party and two abstentions from Ra'am brought the vote to a screeching halt, with the vote 59-59. A Pyrrhic victory for Likud, but a victory nonetheless.
The vote reveals a dangerous tendency among the leading right-wing nationalist figures in the coalition: they are already beginning to abandon their principles. Their backs are against the wall. They have abandoned their own base; their current position in this government is all they have politically. The left-liberal, post-Zionist forces within the coalition and Hamas via Ra'am exert considerable influence over them.
Honestly, Hamas? Yes! The Islamist party Ra'am belongs to the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is the Palestinian branch. On Egyptian television, a high-ranking Fatah official revealed that the leader of Ra'am, Mansur Abbas, as a member of the Israeli government, mediates between Hamas and the US government.
The sword of Damocles hangs low
Lapid and Bennett are paying Ra'am a budget of approximately €130 million to maintain their coalition, thus knowingly financing the Muslim Brotherhood in Israel. Egypt and Jordan have banned the Brotherhood. And with good reason: even in Arab states, it undermines secular or moderate regimes in an attempt to establish a kind of Sunni Iran.
The new government has been shaky from the start. As soon as a minister or member of parliament from the governing coalition leaves the country, it loses its parliamentary majority for votes during that period. A vote of no confidence could immediately bring the government down. Normally, members of the opposition also leave the country at the same time to maintain parity in parliament. Likud has announced it will suspend this voluntary measure. It remains to be seen how this rollercoaster ride will continue – the sword of Damocles certainly hangs heavy.
This article first appeared in abridged form in our newspaper "Israelaktuell," issue 125. You can order the newspaper free of charge here: https://csi-aktuell.de/israelaktuell. We would also be happy to send you several copies for distribution.
