By Josias Terschüren
At the end of last week, US President Donald Trump presented a detailed 20-point plan for ending the Gaza war. He promptly bypassed and removed from the negotiations the actor that distinguished itself with unrealistic positions and demands – Hamas.
Trump exploited the fact that the heads of state of all nations were gathered in New York for the UN General Assembly. Hamas is not a representative at the General Assembly anyway, and he simply revoked the visas of the Palestinian Authority representatives, thus preventing their participation in informal meetings. In the absence of the Palestinians, he managed the feat of isolating Hamas and assembling an international coalition behind his peace initiative. This coalition ranged from the Europeans and moderate Islamic states like Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, to leading Muslim states such as Indonesia—whose prime minister delivered a notably pro-Israel speech in New York!—and Pakistan. Even Hamas's three main partners and host countries—Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt—were on board.
The return of the hostages is the only element of the agreement that can be implemented immediately and practically. All other parts—disarming terrorist organizations, reconstruction, forming a “technocratic government”—will take months or even years. The Arab-Muslim world has never before built such a political or military operation as the Trump plan envisions, let alone sustained one in the long term.
This is what will determine success or failure.
Israel's decision-making processes must always prioritize the practical dimension. The deal makes it possible to achieve an Israeli war aim: the release of the hostages. The deal stands or falls on this. After that, everything would be easier. Two factors now determine success or failure: time—it has to happen quickly—and uncompromising stance against Hamas's "yes, but" approach. If Trump manages to keep everything together, then the "peace agreement" can become the basis for a comprehensive restructuring of the Middle East. Hamas, which doesn't want genuine peace, will be isolated and likely gradually pushed to the periphery. It won't surrender its weapons. It knows that otherwise, it's finished. But without the hostages, the terrorists can die even with weapons in their hands. Will the hostages finally be freed after two years of torment? We'll know more by the end of this week.
This article first appeared in the weekly magazine IDEA.
