A group of jihadists overthrows the al-Assad regime, and Syrians celebrate their "liberation." Israel sees opportunities for a new Middle East, but the upheaval carries risks.
Early on Sunday, the day of the spectacular events in Syria, one thing was clear: December 8th would go down in history. On Saturday, exactly 14 months after the massacre by the terrorist organization Hamas in southern Israel, many Israelis went to sleep wondering: "What will happen in Syria? Will the jihadists capture Damascus and overthrow al-Assad?"
When they woke up the next morning, they rubbed their eyes in disbelief: After 54 years, the al-Assad regime had fallen. In less than two weeks, a group of jihadists had seized the Syrian capital. Everyone in the region knew that the situation in Syria had been unstable for years. But hardly anyone had expected that the leadership in Damascus would ultimately collapse so quickly after 13 years of civil war.
A jihadist who wants to liberate the Levant
The Islamist group "Hai'at Tahrir al-Sham," literally the "Committee for the Liberation of the Levant" (HTS), is responsible for this overthrow. The group was founded in 2017 by Abu Muhammad al-Julani, who was born Ahmad Husayn al-Shar'a in Saudi Arabia in 1982. According to his own account, his father came from the Golan Heights, hence his chosen nom de guerre "Al-Julani" (from the Golan).
Al-Julani fought in Iraq, but his primary goal was the establishment of an Islamist regime. In 2011, he was sent to Syria to lead the al-Nusra Front, which was affiliated with al-Qaeda and combined the objectives of various Islamist groups. Due to his activities with the al-Nusra Front, the US placed a $10 million bounty on his head in 2017.
In 2016, al-Julani publicly thanked al-Qaeda for its support and announced the founding of HTS. Since then, he has administered a form of "state within a state" in the northern Syrian province of Idlib, which strongly opposed the regime under al-Assad.
In an interview he gave three years ago to the US-based media outlet PBS Frontline, Al-Julani stated that he had been strongly influenced by the Second Intifada and raised in a pro-Palestinian manner. During the Second Intifada, from September 2000 to February 2005, Palestinians waged a war of terror against Israel, resulting in the deaths of approximately 1,000 Israelis.
Sunnis are pleased about the fall
In Jerusalem's Old City on Sunday, Arabs excitedly huddled together over their mobile phones: "It was about time this criminal regime was overthrown," said one who had been in Syria himself in 1974 and had already spoken out against Hafez al-Assad (1930–2000), Bashar's father.
In his shop, he shows the YouTube channel of the Qatari broadcaster Al Jazeera on his laptop: "Look how many women and children were held in this prison in Damascus." The footage is supposed to show how HTS jihadists break into the notorious Sayyidnaya torture prison and how dozens of women are held captive there. Another man, who fought for the Jordanian army in 1967, said: "My wife was born in Damascus. And I'm so glad that that criminal al-Assad has finally been overthrown!" He hated the father, but now he means the son.
In the Neustadt district, Arabs also commented enthusiastically on the news. "Every unjust regime eventually comes to an end," a merchant declared cheerfully. And while listening to the Arabic radio broadcast, he exclaimed gleefully, "Now a new era is dawning!"
At least on the latter point, he seems to be in agreement with the Israeli Prime Minister. Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud) described the change of power as a "historic day for the Middle East," one that presents "great opportunities but also considerable dangers." He emphasized that Israel strives for "neighborly and peaceful relations with the new forces in Syria.".
While Western media were still speculating about where the former ruler Al-Assad had fled to, the Arabs in the old city were unanimous: "Of course he's with his friend Putin in Russia. That's the only thing Putin can still do for him." Indeed, Russian state media then reported that Moscow had granted asylum to Al-Assad and his family.
For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the fall of al-Assad represents a major setback. He had massively supported al-Assad in the civil war since 2015, thus keeping the regime alive. Russia also relies on the Tartus naval base as a power factor in the region.
Refuge in Russia
As early as the end of November, the jihadists had exploited the fact that al-Assad's allies, above all Russia and Iran, were facing their own challenges: Russia is waging its war against Ukraine, and Iran is severely weakened by its war against Israel. Thanks to its connection to al-Assad, Syria had thus far served as a land route for supporting the terrorist militia Hezbollah.
However, according to media reports, Hezbollah withdrew all its forces from Syria on Saturday. At the end of last week, its leader Naim Qassem had still expressed support for the regime.
In Damascus, even al-Assad's own soldiers shed their uniforms on Sunday and joined the jihadists or civilians. The Islamists' tactics had worked, and the way to the presidential palace in Damascus was clear. They joyfully shared videos on social media showing them taking over the palace, which has a large network of tunnels. Al-Assad's family had already fled to Russia and the United Arab Emirates in recent days. On Sunday morning, the former leader himself boarded a plane bound for Russia. Rumors that the plane had crashed were not confirmed.
Between 1970 and 2000, Hafez al-Assad ruled Syria as a dictator. After his death in 2000, his son Bashar assumed power. Numerous legends surrounded the car accident involving his son Basil in 1994. In Syria before the civil war that began in 2011, posters, placards, busts, and statues of Hafez, Bashar, and Basil were ubiquitous. As members of the Alawite religious community, the family represented a minority in predominantly Sunni Syria. This also gave other minorities, such as Christians, a sense of relative protection.
Caution at the border and a faint hope
However euphoric the reactions to the change of power may sound, the Israeli army is on high alert. After Saudi news outlets reported on Sunday that the Syrian army had withdrawn, the Israelis took control of the Syrian side of Mount Hermon to prevent the jihadists from seizing the area.
The Israeli army declared the Golan Heights a military exclusion zone. Following the Yom Kippur War, the international community had established a buffer zone there, which was monitored by the United Nations observer mission, the UNDOF soldiers.
From Israel's perspective, this agreement is now temporarily suspended. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: "The agreement has collapsed. We will not allow hostile forces to establish a foothold on our border." Until a suitable arrangement for this area is found, this is a legitimate and "temporary defensive measure," Netanyahu continued.
The Israeli Air Force also attacked weapons depots in Syria, describing the strikes as intense. The aim, they said, was to prevent the weapons from falling into the hands of Islamists. According to media reports, this included a depot for chemical weapons.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) expressed his support for expanding the security zone, adding that Israel should "avoid unnecessary statements that could push the new Syrian government onto a hostile course." Benny Gantz (State Camp) said Israel must "look beyond the Syrian arena. Iran is a shaky pillar, Hezbollah has been badly damaged, and its influence in Syria and Lebanon has weakened." He advocated expanding the Abraham Accords to create a barrier against Iran.
The new rulers in Syria, meanwhile, remain confident of victory and are setting their sights on Jerusalem and beyond. In a video from the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, they announced: “This is where we come from, O Jerusalem. Be patient, O people of Gaza.” They further declared that, just as they had captured the Umayyad Mosque, they would capture the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem and advance all the way to the Kaaba in Medina, the holiest site in Islam. (Israelnetz)
